EIA Forecasts Decline In U.S. Biomass Power Generation Through 2027

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on August 11, 2026, a monthly report of near-term energy forecasts, with data current as of August 6, 2026. The document outlines a two-speed trajectory for renewable energy in the U.S. between 2025 and 2027: On one hand, the overall share of renewables in national electricity generation grows over the period studied. On the other hand, electricity generation from biomass follows the opposite path, according to the agency. Electricity generation from biomass declines in absolute terms year over year across the forecast horizon, the EIA states. Its relative weight within the renewable energy basket itself contracts even further, with the sector occupying an increasingly marginal place in the mix. Other renewable sectors, not detailed in this report, capture most of the growth over the period. The EIA does not specify the structural reasons behind this relative decline in biomass power, limiting itself to a statistical projection of observed trends. One of the most significant takeaways from the EIA’s forecasts concerns the divergence between electricity and non-electric uses of biomass. While electricity generation from biomass declines, industrial consumption of woody biomass—used for process heat and cogeneration rather than for feeding into the power grid—grows over the same period.

This contrast illustrates a reorientation of woody biomass uses toward the industrial sector rather than toward power generation itself. The verified data, however, do not allow for identifying the precise cause, whether relative costs, resource availability, or differentiated support policies.

The installed capacity of the biomass power generation fleet (the number of megawatts of plants in service) remains broadly stable across the forecast horizon. This stability applies to both waste biomass and woody biomass, in both the power generation and industrial sectors.

This stable capacity, combined with declining output, suggests a falling utilization rate rather than a wave of closures or new commissioning. The EIA notes, however, that its capacity forecasts can change from one edition of the monthly report to the next.

On a methodological level, it is important to distinguish between two figures that a quick reading of the report could conflate: Electricity generation, measured in kilowatt hours and reported for the electric power sector as a whole, and primary energy consumption of biomass, measured in quadrillion British thermal units (quads) and broken down by sector of use, like power generation, industrial, residential, and commercial. These two data series, while related, do not correspond term for term and come from separate tables within the same EIA report.